Stormy Weekend On Tap

Temperatures still expected to warm up

May 17, 2011|by Ron Hearst, KY3 Chief Meteorologist | rhearst@ky3.com

TONIGHTMid 50s
Sprinkles ending east then a new batch of storms by morning
THURSDAYMid 70s

Storms early then Mostly Cloudy and warmer

FRIDAYMid 70s
Dry morning with storms developing towards evening
12-hour forecast

24-hour forecast

Satellite & Radar

Wind Chill

Allergy Index

Almanac

The Setup

A large storm system is currently centered over Utah. This continues to be a rather large storm with many waves of energy rotating around it. Forecast issues over the next seven days deal with timing each individual wave and its impacts on the Ozarks. I have been surprised by the amount of moisture that has returned so rapidly to the southern plains. This gives me great concern about the possibility of heavy rain and flooding for the Ozarks.

Tonight and Thursday

The first wave of energy has now moved across the Ozarks. A few lingering showers can be found in our eastern counties but by 7pm this area of rain will have moved east. Attention then turns to western Oklahoma where a tornado watch has been issued. The satellite show the next wave of energy is in the process of creating storms in this region. The thunderstorms will eventually track towards the Ozarks and arrive during the morning. Small hail can be expected in the stronger storms but overall severe weather is not a big threat until Friday night or Saturday. Thursday morning storms will eventually break up and dry conditions are forecast for Thursday afternoon and early Friday.

Friday and the Weekend

The upper low will shift from Utah to western South Dakota over the weekend. This puts the Ozarks in favorable southwest flow to continue the train of moisture and storms into the region. Our saving grace may be that the rain shifts slightly north more along a developing warm front which will lie in central and northern Missouri. Still the atmosphere will be plenty juicy and very unstable. Any wave of energy will be capable to igniting a line of storms. Right now it appears a heavy band of rain will fall Friday night into Saturday morning. Once the rain ends Saturday the rest of the day should be dry and some partial sun may appear. The models hint at yet another round of rain as the upper low lifts northeast.

Wet Weather Continues Next Week

Quick on the heels of the departing upper low a new batch of energy will drop into the plains. Yet another surface low will develop in western Oklahoma. Deep tropical moisture will remained positioned over the Ozarks so it will not take much for storms to quickly fire. Rain chances on Monday I would classify as slight but become likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are still trying to print out 3-7 inches of rain for the Ozarks over the course of the next week. Hopefully it will come slow enough and spaced far enough apart to limit any damage.

Sunny Skies,

Ron Hearst
KY3 Stormteam
Chief Meteorologist

rhearst@ky3.com

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