Becoming partly cloudy; isolated storms late in the far west.
TONIGHT
Near 70
Weakening storms west, then variable clouds.THURSDAY
Mid 80s
Scattered storms likely, some severe12-hour forecast
24-hour forecast
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Almanac
Good afternoon! Clouds have redeveloped over sections of the Ozarks including Springfield, keeping temperatures in the 70s. Where the sun is out a bit more, it's already in the low 80s. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s as a result later this afternoon. A few of the storms a few hundred miles to our west will be headed this way but I suspect will weaken with time. Still, the morning weather balloon indicates a good deal of instability above a lid of warm air. If a storm or two can get through the lid, severe weather is possible.
Morning Discussion:
Good morning! An upper disturbance is zipping northeast near the Kansas/Missouri border this morning. Light showers have persisted near this feature but have failed to strengthen due to a warm layer aloft. As this upper system moves away I expect clouds to thin somewhat and allow temperatures to rise into the 80s. Severe storms are expected to develop over the plains of Kansas and Oklahoma later today, then move east. It's possible that this line could approach the far western counties of Missouri and Arkansas by late this evening, but there will likely be a weakening trend as this happens. The better chance of rain and storms, some severe, will be Thursday as the main upper system begins drawing closer. This will cause the big lid of warm air overhead to cool, allowing scattered storms through the afternoon. A cold front will move through by Friday morning and an extended period of much cooler weather will begin. As the one upper low begins to pull away, another will drop in from the north. The result will be about a four-day period of scattered light showers and cold temperatures for May. Highs will be in the 60s this weekend, and perhaps even upper 50s in some cases into Monday.
