Good evening! Highs reach the 60s again today—and even topped 70 in Joplin! A warm front is located over northern Missouri eastward through Kentucky this evening with a nice south breeze over the Ozarks. A mild night is in store and moisture near the Gulf Coast will gradually begin moving north tonight. This will likely increase our clouds but I think we’ll see enough sun tomorrow at least over the western half of the region to bring highs into the 60s again. A few showers are possible early over the eastern half of the Ozarks and temperatures may be cooler there. A cold front will begin moving into the region during the afternoon, and once upper level support arrives thunderstorms could develop along the front. While wind shear will be adequate for severe storms, instability is a bit more uncertain. Thus, there is at least a small chance for a few severe storms with hail and wind, though the tornado threat won’t be zero if enough instability can develop. The front will move through the area Friday night and bring a much colder day on Saturday. In fact, there may be a few spots that don’t get out of the upper 30s if clouds hold long enough. As to the chance for snow, I can’t rule out a few flakes but it appears the substantial moisture will be out of the region before the air turns cold enough.
We’ll see a bit of a warm-up on Sunday and it will continue into Tuesday. Morning models are showing a very strong storm for late Tuesday into Wednesday that looks rather ominous in terms of wind shear and severe weather potential. Again, a lack of instability may keep that threat minimal, and for that matter plenty could change about the timing or intensity of the system in later forecasts.